Archive for January, 2010

Funny about Money went down yesterday afternoon while I was gadding about town. It remained down into the evening, when Mrs. Micah contrived to rescue it. Turns out the problem was a corrupted plug-in.

Anyway, the site is back up, and I hope it will stay up. Welcome back, dear readers!

♥ ♥ ♥ ♥

Those who were expecting a slowdown in bank failures this year are probably going to be disappointed, as a total of 15 banks have already failed so far in 2010. 140 banks collapsed in 2009, making for the worst year for bank failures since 1992 (...

It is amazing how many financial analysts usually from the too big to fail banks have gone onto the media circuit to claim that employment is always a lagging indicator in economic recoveries.  They preach this belief as if it were a law like thermodynamics.  These same people who never envisioned a stock market collapse rivaling the Great Depression now want the public to believe their flawed doctrine of economic prosperity.  Yet the question is prosperity for who?  How are we supposed to trust an industry filled of self-labeled experts that missed the biggest financial crisis in modern times?  This is like a pharmacist who doesn’t know what drug to give you or a baseball player who can’t swing a bat.  We can’t trust Wall Street for a variety of reasons including they are part of the nucleus for this economic calamity.

It is amazing that we even have to debate the issue of employment.  Our economy cannot function and provide the middle class a thriving environment without jobs.  This should be obvious yet the Wall Street crowd is feeling comfortable even though the public is still dealing with double-digit unemployment (we’ve lost jobs for 24 straight months and would have to go back to the Great Depression to find a similar streak).  In fact, the largest state economy in our nation that of California with an economy of over $1.8 trillion managed to average out an underemployment rate of 21.1 percent for all of 2009:

Source:  BLS

This chart is downright troubling.  Who would have thought that Michigan and California would lead the way in 2009 with underemployment rates over 21 percent?  Michigan has had issues for many years and their economy pulls in a GDP of $380 billion.  But California being the biggest economic state in our country with a GDP of $1.8 trillion should make you pause before you think we are somehow in recovery mode.  And from the looks of it, California with their historical housing bubble looks to have years of financial trouble to work through.  These issues are large and we haven’t even begun examining their state budget issues that are projected to come in at $21 billion.

Having a job is the cornerstone of our economy and also our vibrant middle class.  This has been the case for multiple decades and actually has been part of our identity since the disastrous years of the Great Depression.  Having a job is a pact with our country and Wall Street has taken this for granted in the last thirty years.  Slowly we moved from an economy that valued work to a casino like economy that funneled money into Wall Street and whatever demand came after the spending of the corporatocracy was given as crumbs to the public.

This notion of “jobless recovery” is such an oxymoron.  How can we have a recovery while losing 8 million jobs?  Just because bank bonuses are back to record breaking levels does not mean a recovery is in place.  Statistically we can massage the numbers however we like.  And what else would you expect?  We pumped $14 trillion in bailouts, backstops, and gifts to bankers so of course something was bound to happen.  Even a mountain can move with enough force.  Yet where are the jobs?

We should examine job gains after previous recessions to see the erosion of our middle class base:

Source:  NBER

The above chart marks the month ending of all recessions since 1945 and how long it took to have a net positive month in job gains.  For the most part, jobs were added fairly quickly and in many cases the month right after the official end of the recession.  But starting in 2001 we start noticing this shift to the jobless recovery era.  Now why did this occur?  Well for previous recessions the business cycle was easy to follow and track.  The economy pulled back and so did employment.  But once the economy got back on track demand followed and so did employment.   But since the banking oligarchs have taken over our economy, a gain in the economic indicators does not mean additional employment.  Since we now are largely importers we can buy cheap goods but have dismantled our goods producing base.   Ask yourself this, where did banks make their profits in 2009?  It definitely wasn’t because employment boomed.  Demand has been mute.  So where did it come from?  The profits came from gambling on exotic financial instruments all over the world with taxpayer money.  In other words, the recent stock market rally is artificial and no longer represents the economic reality for most Americans.

Another key indicator to look at is long-term unemployment:

It is amazing that the largest group of unemployed Americans falls under the long-term unemployed category.  Over 6,130,000 Americans fall in this group.  These are people that have been out of work for at least 27 weeks and will most likely, need to find a job in a different industry.  We’ve discussed this in previous posts that the groups that took the biggest hits in this recession are manufacturing and construction.  The financial industry has contracted as well but nothing compared to what other sectors have.  The above chart should be indicative of where we are.  This recession may be over in terms of GDP increasing but remove the bailouts and the stimulus and you get a deep economic mess.  Plus, we have yet to add any net jobs.  Think about this, we’ve added some $14 trillion in bailouts and backstops and we have yet to add a net job in the economy.  Is this really the reflection of a healthy economy?

The middle class since the 1970s has seen their savings dwindle, their work week increase while their pay lags, and the cost of necessities like housing and healthcare zoom past any income gains.  Even with two income households many Americans are simply trying to make ends meet.  Even those who are doing well, those making enough to be hit with the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) are feeling the pinch as well.  Because in reality, the last decade has been a gift to the top 1 percent of the nation.  Think about how taxes play out.  Many of these people live off capital gains that are taxed at 15 percent while even a physician working 70 hours a week will need to pay the top federal tax bracket of someone actually working.  In other words, our system values people who put their money into the casino as opposed to working.

How else can we explain the cheerful smiles of Wall Street traders while the nationwide underemployment rate is up over 17 percent?  How else can we explain the giddiness of bankers counting their bonuses while home values are still in the dumps for most Americans?  The continuous chants of “jobs lag the stock market” are absolutely tiresome and in fact, wrong.  The current system is only waiting like a beggar hoping Wall Street creates enough demand so most Americans can get a piece of the action.  We already saw what this creates with the housing bubble.  You can enjoy the ride for a few years but you’ll be kicked out once the fun is over.  While the public gets kabuki theater programs like HAMP bankers get bailed out 100 cents on the dollar like Goldman Sachs did through the AIG gift exchange.  In other words, this bailout isn’t for you and it certainly isn’t about creating jobs.

There is this argument about global bubbles.  Gold bubbles, a China bubble, another stock market bubble.  But take China for example.  Even though they are spending enormous amounts of money they have pumped billions into infrastructure projects that are at least building up their economy and putting people to work.  Engineering analysts for the U.S. estimate that we have about $2 trillion in infrastructure upgrade projects that we have delayed or simply ignored.  Why not take some of that $14 trillion and put it to at least reinforcing that core of our economic structure?  I’m not talking about building strip malls and dumping more money into the commercial real estate pit.  How about reinforcing our highways, bridges, universities, and other key components that make our economy strong and envied around the world?  If we are going to spend at least spend in the right place.

Yet the irony of this is the Wall Street system still believes in a “free market” world yet they’ve never even lived in anything resembling a free market.  Their idea of financial innovation is setting up credit cards with 79.9 percent interest rates and creating mortgages that harm your financial health when you’re not looking.

People are focusing on places like Greece, no doubt a big problem but California has an economy that is 13 percent of U.S. GDP!  Michigan has a bigger GDP than Greece ($357 billion) yet so much attention is being given to this issue.  Our nation’s number one GDP state has an underemployment rate of 21 percent and is on the precipice of financial insolvency.  Not only California, but other states.  In fact, many have been borrowing for their unemployment insurance funds trying to keep those long-term unemployed from going into despair:

Source: Propublica

Four enormous GDP states in California, Texas, Florida, and New York have bankrupt unemployment insurance funds and are now borrowing from the federal government who is also broke (not broke enough to bailout Wall Street however).  How anyone can look at the above and claim we are in recovery is really beyond me.

If you enjoyed this post click here to subscribe to a complete feed and stay up to date with today’s challenging market!

ShareThis

Frugal Scholar, who must read everything of value on the entire Internet, stumbled upon an amazing remark in, of all places, the Wall Street Journal. In one article, Seventh Generation founder Jeffrey Hollender remarks that it’s surprising most people use laundry detergent at all: “You don’t even need soap to wash most loads,” he says. The truth is, it’s the action of the agitator, not the chemicals, that gets most clothes clean.

Uhmmm… Say what, my Captain of Industry?

Most of us have figured out that we need only a fraction of the amount we were brought up to pour into the washer, partly because newer detergents are far more efficient and partly because you don’t really need even the recommended amount. But…no detergent at all?

Well, of course, the gantlet was down.

Straightaway to the garage, stately home of the washer and dryer! Mustering all my nerve, I laundered two small loads with zero detergent, one of whites and one of coloreds. The whites load included a few pieces of underwear; the colored, a shirt I’d worn for a day of gardening.

The result? Pretty interesting.

Everything came out looking clean. Minor stains that I thought would come through unscathed actually washed out. This pair of fluffy cotton socks, which I wear around the house and patio as slippers, was pretty grimy when I put them in the washer. They came out looking exactly the same as they do when they’re washed with detergent.

These socks, which are three or four years old, always have a little gray on the bottom—no amount of detergent or bleach gets it out. If anything, they actually look a little better than the last time I ran them through the washer.

Peeking into the machine during the “wash” cycle, I found the water looked exactly as dirty as it does when I’ve added detergent, only without the suds:

The “rinse” cycle ran clear as tapwater.

The Sniff Test: By and large, all of the freshly washed clothing came out with an odor: it smelled of clean water! Because I didn’t want to heat-set any residual stains into the whites, I line-dried those; the coloreds went into the dryer. When fully dry, most of the pieces were fresh-smelling and free of either body odor or yukky commercial factory perfume. I use a perfume-free detergent, anyway, so there was no way the clothes would have retained any scent from previous launderings.

A couple of pairs of undies retained a very slight odor. I ran one of these through again with the colored clothing, and after a second drubbing in the washer, it came out completely odor-free.

Isn’t that something!

Conclusion: Because I’m not willing to consume the amount of water needed to run my underwear through the wash twice each week, I would put a small amount of detergent in with those. But apparently most outer clothes that have not absorbed much B.O. and that are not excessively dirty can indeed be washed in plain, clean water, without benefit of factory chemicals.

Just realized I didn’t write a post this morning and then, whilst frolicking with bureaucrats, didn’t get to it this afternoon, either.

Another fine exercise in jumping through hoops and tearing around the Maypole today.

Not having heard anything more from the COBRA administrators over the past 15 days, despite having been told that a notice and a statement would be sent out, I called again to inquire.

Today’s bureaucrat harked back to the original claim that I needed to have sent them money a month BEFORE I was laid off my job. I explained that Arizona State University’s Human Resources people said that I was not supposed to send money while I was still employed there. She said well, then I wasn’t covered.

So I’ve now spent the last month without any health coverage at all, if you believe this one’s version.

She wants me to present myself in person on Monday—when I’ll be teaching until 2:00 in the afternoon about 25 miles from their office—with a check for $334 in hand. This, she says, will cover me through February.

Of course, that doesn’t make any sense, because the one who told me I’d been approved for the ARRAS discount said my premiums would be $185. Two times $185 is $370. So… who knows what this is about.

Entertaining, isn’t it?

First ASU’s HR people told me I would be not qualified for the ARRAS discount because my last day of work was December 31. Then the Arizona Department of Administration, which administers COBRA, told me I would be qualified for the ARRAS discount because my last day of work was December 31. I sent an application and was told I was approved.

Next, ADOA said I should send a chunk of money to the state no later than the first week in December. Then ASU’s HR department told me this demand was incomprehensible, that I most certainly did not need to send money for COBRA while I was still employed by ASU, and that COBRA would send me a statement after I was terminated, saying how much and when to pay.

In mid-January, ADOA informed me that I was not terminated and as far as they could tell I was still employed by ASU. Then ASU told me I most certainly was terminated and ADOA did not know what they were talking about. Then ADOA told me I was not terminated and was still a state employee.

After I spoke with my ex-husband’s former law partner, who is now Arizona State University’s general counsel, I was told the mess was cleaned up. At that point, I was informed that I had actually been canned not on December 31 but on January 10, but nevertheless because the Obama Administration had extended the ARRAS discount into February, I still would be able to get  coverage I could sort of pay for.

On January 14, I spoke to one Connie at ADOA, who said I did not have to send a check but that I would receive a letter telling me of my eligibility and letting me know where and when to send a premium payment. And by the way, no, I did not need to make a COBRA payment a month before my job ended. That was 15 days ago. No such communication has appeared.

Now I am told I need to pony up $334.04, which is supposed to cover me “through February.” Three hundred and thirty-four dollars is slightly more than twice the earned income I have received this month.

So, this afternoon I called the Feds.

There I learned that while COBRA is indeed a federal law, the federal government’s regulatory oversight is limited to private employers. If you work for a state university or government office, you’re on your own! I asked the woman who shared this gem with me if she thought I should call a lawyer. She said not yet…it’ll be another week or so before they’re actually in violation of the law. She recommended going back to HR (hah! words from a lady who’s never had to deal with ASU’s HR department!) and nagging some more.

I am nagged out. On Monday I will trudge down to ADOA in person, hand over $334, and demand a receipt that states exactly what the money is for, and not only that, ask that they produce a policy or a contract describing what I get and when. After that, I give up. If I get in a car wreck or have a heart attack before Medicare kicks in, I guess I’ll just have to drain my savings to pay the bills and then declare bankruptcy.

Ain’t workin’ for the State of Arizona grand?

Amazon has been notoriously tight-lipped (so far) as to how many of their popular Kindle devices have been sold, but this information has now started to leak out. It started in the company's Q4 earnings conference call earlier today, when CEO Jef...

Elizabeth Warren on The Daily Show discusses the need for Wall Street reform.  See her previous appearance on the show.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c
Elizabeth Warren
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Crisis

Preparing to write the next installment in a series on achieving financial freedom, I ran some figures to compare the result of paying down a mortgage with extra monthly payments toward principal with investing the same amount monthly in a mutual fund. What I discovered runs against my theory that you’re well served to pay off a mortgage as fast as you can.

I still think that’s true if you’re getting close to retirement. In retirement, every debt should be wiped off your books, because you will need all your cash flow to live on. However, if you’re younger—say, anywhere between 20 and 45—and your mortgage rate is low compared to returns on equity investments, it would be to your advantage to invest extra dollars in a mutual fund earning around 8 percent. At today’s rates, this strategy allow you to accrue enough to pay off the principal faster than will throwing a monthly amount at the loan principal. Here’s how this shakes down:

M’hijito and I have a 30/15 mortgage at 4.3 percent. This means that for the first 15 years, we make payments at the 30-year amortization rate, but after the 15 years have passed, we either have to pay off the loan or we have to refinance it. The loan’s principal is $211,000.

We chose this mortgage because, at the time we bought the house, we believed the real estate market was nearing the bottom. We believed the house would drop in value another $4,000 or $5,000 and then begin to rise, probably at around 3 percent p/a. We figured that in five to ten years we could sell or rent the house and either break even or make a small profit. As everyone now knows, this was dead wrong: in fact, real estate was in free-fall, and the house is now worth at best $170,000, but more realistically around $150,000. This turns the loan into a real albatross. One strategy we are considering is to try to pay down principal with whatever extra monthly payment we can make (which ain’t much!), so that in 15 years, the amount to refinance might at least be no more than the house is actually worth, possibly allowing us to sell the house at that time.

In 15 years, with no extra payment toward principal, the loan balance will be $138,338. Monthly principal and interest payments are $1044; PITI comes to something over $1200.

Note that the projected loan balance is less than the most pessimistic present-day valuation. If the market finally has bottomed out and housing increases in value at 3% a year (a figure that is now being bandied about), in 15 years the house will be worth $233,695. That is less than we paid for it, but at least if we sold the house at that time we would walk away with a little cash in our pockets.

With me out of work, about the most we can afford to pay extra toward loan principal is about $100 a month.

Using Excel’s full value (=FV…) formula, I calculated the the return on a $100/month investment in a mutual fund earning 8% per annum. (Over at Vanguard, a number of stock funds and even a few bond funds are returning at this rate; one of them is Windsor II, in which I happen to already have a little cash.) I then used Quicken to run an amortization schedule, and compared the amount a $100/month investment would be worth in 15 years with the amount an extra $100/month principal payment would reduce the loan balance.

Assuming that our mutual fund investment averaged an 8 percent return, if we sent Vanguard $100 a month, in 15 years we would accrue $34,604 (full value =(.08/12,15*12,-100). If we paid an extra $100 a month toward the loan principal, in 15 years we would have paid the balance down by an extra $18,000 ($100 x 180 pay periods). According to Quicken, we would still owe $113,116.

With no extra payments, remember, we would still owe $138,338.

$138,338 – 113,116 = $25,220

Compare that with the $34,604 we would have earned in the mutual fund. Clearly, we would be ahead—by over $9,000!—by investing the money in a mutual fund with low overhead, such as Vanguard and Fidelity offer.

Well, now. Suppose you were not out of work, and so had plenty of cash to throw at the principal. Let’s suppose you really have plenty of cash and you decide to pay the equivalent of an entire P&I payment toward principal. Then what?

If you put $1,044 into a mutual fund every month, in 15 years you would have $361,264. If you paid $1044/month toward principal (in addition to your regular payment) on a $211,000 loan, you would pay off the loan in 10 years.

But by putting the cash into a mutual fund returning 8 percent, in 10 years you’d earn $190,995. Since in 10 years, with no extra payments, your loan balance would have dropped to $167,901, you’d still come out ahead:

$190,995 – $167,901 = $23,094

In other words, if you put the amount of an extra loan payment in an 8% investment, in ten years you would have enough to pay off the mortgage and still leave $23,000 in your pocket. If you used the same amount to pay toward the loan once a month, you would pay off the debt but would have no cash left over.

The conclusion is obvious: If your goal is to pay off your mortgage, you’re better off investing a regular payment in a decent mutual fund than paying the same amount toward principal.

This assumes your mortgage interest rate is lower than the rate of return from an equity fund. Note also that my figures do not take into consideration the small tax advantage gained by paying mortgage interest; this factor also would tend to improve the picture if you invested in the market.

Risky? Sure. But we now know that investing in real estate is wildly risky, too: more so, it develops, than the stock  market. My stock investments are rapidly regaining their pre-crash value, but there’s no credible sign of any recovery in the real estate market here. Even if the value of the house starts to increase at 3% p.a. today, in 15 years it won’t be worth anything like what we paid for it. If property values remain flat for any length of time (as it appears they will), we will lose not only our shirt but our pants, socks, and underwear.

I used to think my father was crazy because he refused to buy a  house until after he had saved enough to pay for it in cash. All the time I was growing up, we lived either in company housing or in rentals. His reasoning indeed was crazy—he bought into The Protocols of Zion, an irrational tract that led him to believe all mortgage lenders were part of a hallucinatory international Jewish conspiracy. However, the effect was that when he retired at the age of 53, he had enough cash to buy a house and a car and to support himself and my mother in a middle-class lifestyle without having to work.

Crazy like a fox, that old boy was.

A rabid fox, but still…

Earlier this week, the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) released a report titled "The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2010 to 2020". This report was filled with the CBO's projections for many different things, including projections for...

The struggle for average Americans to keep up is largely becoming an act of will power and force in this current grand recession.  Now you wouldn’t think that there is a definite war raging against the middle class if you simply follow the mainstream media but the facts speak to a more distilled and corporatized method of debt slavery.  Americans are working more hours trying to stay in the same place that they believe would keep them on pace to having the American Dream.  And this dream is merely the ability to afford a home, provide your children with a good education (public or private), and save enough to have a retirement that doesn’t require you to eat cat food after a lifetime of working.  That is at the root of what most average Americans would want after a full working career.

But we are at an inflexion point and the middle class is largely being squeezed out.  A recent study from the Commerce Department shed some light on an issue that we already know.  Over the past 20 years the middle class has been falling behind:

Everything is relative in this world.  Incomes have gone up during this time but the cost of housing, healthcare, and access to education have outpaced income gains in some cases by four to one.  Money is only worth what you can buy with it.  The grand housing bubble of this decade lured many into buying homes that they simply could not afford.  Banks and Wall Street were more than willing to provide access to this dream since they knew if all bets crashed, and they did, that they would call on their connected politicians to bail them out and send the bill to taxpayers for their adventures in finance.  Take a look at the chart above closely.  Housing price changes have wiped out any gains in income.  The relative amount of income needed to buy a home has put many two income households on the brink of bankruptcy.  And the 4 million foreclosure filings in 2009 alone tell us that many Americans are unable to hold onto one cornerstone of the American Dream.

The middle class is absolutely vital to having a sustainable and flourishing economy.  The massive debt machine coming from the big banks has created a new form of debt servitude.  Some would argue that this is a personal responsibility issue and I will be the first to agree with that.  People should live within their means.  But think of the FICO score that has become like a permanent financial report card.  Some employers actually screen for credit scores before hiring applicants.  Want to rent a home because you don’t want to over extend and buy a home?  You better hope that FICO is up to par.  And many insurance companies base their analysis on this score.  So even if you never had a credit card or any debt, you would be in a bad spot because so many people rely on this number.  This is only one example of how people are actually forced to use debt simply to pursue the avenues of the middle class.

In fact, we have many more people simply trying to stay afloat let alone pursuing the middle class ideal.  Over 37 million Americans are now part of the food stamp program, not only is this the highest number ever but also the highest percentage of Americans ever to be on food assistance:

I sometimes read gut wrenching stories from the Great Depression where people would wash and reuse paper towels or have soup for weeks on end just to keep their families fed.  37 million Americans would be one step away from that existence if it weren’t for some basic safety nets.  It is troubling to say the least that this patch is what is keeping this great recession from being a profound depression.  Yet I think the 27 million underemployed Americans are already in that state of mind.  The idea of a middle class life is slowly drifting away as each and every day we realize that our nation is becoming more of a corporatacracy.

The housing nightmare really played on both ends of this middle class dream.  Banks were more than willing to lend trillions of dollars to people that really could not afford the homes they were buying.  This created the biggest housing bubble the world has ever witnessed and the bursting ramifications are being felt throughout the economy.  Yet if you look at the equation, who is really being punished?  Average Americans are being punished as they have their homes foreclosed on.  Yet banks who are in the supposed position of financial experts, have not only garnered trillions in bailouts but are now back to their speculative ways.  This is disturbing because it is highlighting a marked shift and a near game over for the middle class.

Think of the rise of our economy in the 1940s and 1950s.  Many returning GIs had access to affordable education through new programs and grants.  It is the least you can offer to someone defending this country.  Next, it was possible to support a family with one income because we had a strong and sustainable manufacturing base.  Now, we have families with two incomes in the service sector trying to piece things together.  Throw in a child, and that second income evaporates through childcare costs and educational fees.  In other words, just because people have more income their buying power has collapsed.

And this fact is revealed in the data that two-income households are more of an economic necessity:

So of married couples with two children 76 percent have two earners.  The average American is simply working to stay on track or face being thrown off the treadmill.  Jobs are so important to keeping a solid middle class.  This should be obvious but current policy being driven by the corporatacracy is simply focusing on keeping prices inflated for the big ticket items (i.e., housing and healthcare).  At this point in the game, housing values have gone up to points that are clearly unsupportable:

This being the biggest budget item for most households, you would assume that lower prices would be welcomed from the government seeing that many Americans are underemployed and those with jobs have seen stagnant wages.

The middle class dream is at risk.  This is a question of what we want out of our country.  Are we simply obsessed on keeping home values inflated so banking giants could keep gaming accounting rules and claim billion dollar profits?  If we want to prosper in the next decade, there will need to be a radical change to preserve what once was envied by the world.  Otherwise, you can expect banks and their political allies to keep selling away the middle class of America.  On the path we are traveling on the middle class is largely at risk for a big game over in the next decade.

If you enjoyed this post click here to subscribe to a complete feed and stay up to date with today’s challenging market!

ShareThis